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"U.S. house prices sank 3.1 percent in the first three months of 2008 from a year earlier, the second quarterly decline since June after 13 years of increases" while "inventory of unsold properties continues to swell, pushing down home prices", according to Bloomberg News.
This decline is serious when you consider that many homes are not worth the amount of the mortgage that homeowners owe. As Paul Kisel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago put it, "This is a financial crisis. You can't put lipstick on this pig.''
However, the Wall Street Journal has some promising news for the Chicago market:
A flurry of condominium building has kept prices down on much new construction. At the same time, some established apartment buildings are still seeing buoyant prices, even as properties spend more time on the market. The Carlyle, a 1960s-era glass-and-concrete tower along the city's prized Gold Coast neighborhood, recorded the highest price ever -- $2.4 million -- for one of its "C"-tier units earlier this year, for example.
Jim Kinney, president of Rubloff Residential Properties in Chicago, says "80% to 90% of the buildings along the Gold Coast achieved a record sales price in the last year." The older buildings are often in blue-chip locations and are generally cheaper, per square foot, than new units.
Bargains abound in Chicago's periphery. Seven miles south of the Carlyle is Bronzeville, a gentrifying community that during the housing boom was a favorite of buyers who couldn't afford Chicago's glitzier core. Just last month, a bank that owns a foreclosed duplex in Bronzeville dropped the asking price to just $85,000, from the January listing price of $129,900. The owners who lost the property originally paid $330,000 in November 2005, about a year before the Chicago market peaked.
But beware: Prices may be stagnant or worse for a long time to come. "Because of the huge inventory, it will take years to recover," says Christina Miller, a Rubloff agent, citing periphery neighborhoods such as Wicker Park, Ukrainian Village and Bucktown.
Chicago's desirable North Shore suburbs are, for the most part, doing well. Median prices in Evanston, Wilmette and Winnetka, all hugging Lake Michigan's shoreline, are up over the past year to varying degrees, though sales volume is down sharply, according to a Zip Code analysis by DataQuick. Sellers are receiving about 89% of the list price, according to March data from the North Shore-Barrington Association of Realtors. That's down from about 95% at the peak of the market.
In upscale Highland Park, about 25 miles north of downtown, prices are down more than 6%. But that average is being skewed by a high number of sales of low-end homes, some forced by foreclosure.